Navigating Global Trade: Insights from Vietnam and North America

As the global economy continues to recover and adapt from the ramifications of recent global disruptions, trade dynamics are shifting significantly. With trade flows projected to surpass $35 trillion in 2025, understanding these trends is essential for trade professionals. In this blog post, we'll explore the ongoing developments in global trade, particularly focusing on Vietnam's impressive trade activities and addressing key trade insights from North America.

Global Import/Export Trends in 2025: A Record-Breaking Year Ahead

Recent projections from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicate that global trade in goods and services is poised to exceed $35 trillion for the first time in history, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 7%. This remarkable increase can be attributed to diverse market recoveries and expansive fiscal policies aimed at enhancing economic activities post-pandemic.

The forecast indicates that trade in goods will contribute roughly $1.5 trillion to this surge, while services are anticipated to grow by $750 billion. Among the contributing factors to this upward trend are advancements in digital trade technologies and logistics optimization, both of which have facilitated smoother cross-border transactions.

However, while optimism surrounds the expected growth, it's pertinent to note that trade growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 may decelerate slightly, with projections of 0.5% for goods and 2% for services. Trade professionals should remain alert as geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariffs, and regulatory changes could influence these forecasts.

Vietnam's Trade Activities: A Rising Star in Global Markets

Vietnam's trade landscape is flourishing, cementing its status as a significant player in the global market. Recent figures reveal that Vietnam’s trade turnover is rapidly approaching the record $900 billion milestone, reaching approximately $883.72 billion by mid-December 2025. This impressive activity is characterized by a notable export value of $20.2 billion alongside imports exceeding $22 billion, resulting in a near $2 billion deficit for the period. Nevertheless, it's worth highlighting that Vietnam reported an overall trade surplus of over $18.6 billion for the year thus far.

The implications of Vietnam's burgeoning export activities are particularly relevant for trade professionals looking for new market opportunities. The country has emerged as a manufacturing hub, especially in sectors like electronics and textiles, thanks to its favorable trade agreements and competitive labor costs. These factors are making Vietnam increasingly attractive for foreign direct investments (FDIs).

Moreover, Canada’s recent efforts to secure new market access for Canadian fish and seafood products in Vietnam suggest a positive trajectory in bilateral trade relations, paving the way for further exchanges and partnerships. As Vietnam continues to diversify its export markets and strengthen its supply chains, traders should consider how to engage with Vietnamese businesses, making the most of the favorable trade conditions.

North American Trade Insights: Challenges and Opportunities

In contrast to the growth witnessed in other regions, North America is currently facing significant challenges. Former President Donald Trump's comments regarding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) raised eyebrows recently when he suggested he "would rather not have" the trade deal, a statement that could signal potential risks to the stability of North American trade relations. As the mandatory joint review is set for July 1, the future of this important agreement hangs in the balance.

The USMCA has played a crucial role in protecting much of North America’s trade from tariffs, allowing for smoother continental trade. If this deal were to falter, it could jeopardize relationships with trading partners Canada and Mexico and introduce further economic uncertainty. Trade professionals should prepare for potential shifts in policy and tariffs that could arise depending on the outcome of this review.

Conversely, Canada is actively exploring ways to diversify its trade partnerships, showcased by Minister Sidhu's upcoming visits to Singapore and Vietnam. This proactive approach underscores the importance for Canadian exporters to engage with emerging markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, where growth opportunities are abundant.

Key News Sources

• Trump says he "would rather not have" his North American trade deal - Axios
• Vietnam’s trade turnover gains momentum, nearing the US$900 billion milestone - VOV.VN
• Government of Canada secures new and expanded market access for Canadian fish, seafood and aquatic products - Canada.ca
• Minister Sidhu to visit Singapore and Vietnam to diversify Canada’s trade and attract new investments - Canada.ca
• Global Trade Update (December 2025): Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025 as flows expected to surge past $35 trillion - UNCTAD

Conclusion

Overall, navigating the complex web of global trade demands agility, foresight, and informed decision-making from professionals in the field. As emerging markets like Vietnam present lucrative opportunities, established regions like North America face new challenges that could redefine trade landscapes. By staying attuned to these developments and strategically aligning with market trends, trade professionals can significantly enhance their operations and capitalize on growth opportunities.

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Key News Sources

• Trump says he "would rather not have" his North American trade deal (Axios) Former President Donald Trump expressed reservations about the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), stating he would "rather not have" the trade deal. This statement precedes a mandatory joint review scheduled for July 1, where the three countries will decide whether to extend the agreement for another 16 years. Trump's comments raise concerns about the potential collapse of the deal, which has so far mitigated the economic impact of his trade policies by shielding much of North American trade from tariffs.

• Vietnam’s trade turnover gains momentum, nearing the US$900 billion milestone (VOV.VN) Vietnam's import-export activity continued to accelerate in the first half of December 2025, bringing the country's total trade turnover close to the record US$900 billion threshold. As of December 15, 2025, total import-export turnover reached US$883.72 billion, with exports at about US$20.2 billion and imports surpassing US$22 billion. The trade balance during this period showed a deficit of nearly US$2 billion, but Vietnam still recorded a cumulative trade surplus of more than US$18.6 billion from the beginning of the year to mid-December.

• Government of Canada secures new and expanded market access for Canadian fish, seafood and aquatic products (Canada.ca) The Government of Canada is expanding opportunities for Canada’s fish, seafood, and aquatic products sector with four new and renewed market access gains in Vietnam, Oman, Brazil, Armenia, and Costa Rica. These achievements, led by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) through engagement with international partners, will support trade diversification and open new pathways for Canadian exporters in key global markets. Notably, Canada has regained access for chilled and frozen finfish fillets and steaks to Vietnam following the country’s acceptance of a Canadian health certificate.

• Minister Sidhu to visit Singapore and Vietnam to diversify Canada’s trade and attract new investments (Canada.ca) Canada is focused on diversifying trade partnerships and attracting investments to build a stronger, more sustainable, and more resilient economy. The Honourable Maninder Sidhu, Minister of International Trade, announced today that he will visit Singapore from February 9 to 10, 2026, to attend the Canada-in-Asia Conference. He will then visit Vietnam from February 11 to 12. The visit will advance Canada’s trade ties with Singapore and Vietnam, two key partners in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), promoting the agreement and reinforcing Canada’s support for Vietnam’s priorities as the 2026 CPTPP Commission Chair.

• Global Trade Update (December 2025): Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025 as flows expected to surge past $35 trillion (UNCTAD) Global trade in goods and services continued to grow through the second half of 2025. If projections hold, global trade this year will exceed $35 trillion for the first time – an increase of about $2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024. Trade in goods will account for about $1.5 trillion of that rise, while services are set to grow by roughly $750 billion, nearly 9%. UNCTAD expects growth to remain positive in the fourth quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

Last updated: June 20, 2026